GCHQ

DS Threat Analysis Dec 2013 

International Political/Diplomatic: The UK has attained over the years an international influence (soft – flexible – hard power) that many other equally or even richer yet envious nations do not – permanent seat on the UNSC, WTO, G8/20, NATO Council, Commonwealth. History and tradition alone will not guarantee that these positions of influence are maintained
– only demonstrable effort through well funded diplomacy, leadership, presence and military force can ensure that this commercially beneficial situation is maintained. Already there has been erosion and concern amongst Allies over the cuts in the capability of the Armed Forces. The Skill of ‘Punching above one’s weight’ is waning.

ISSUE : Current UK spending is unbalanced in favour of soft power undermining the nation’s ability to guarantee the judicious use of flexible and hard power.

Threat Regional/Domestic: Domestic threats to public, cyber, commercial and infrastructure security from terrorism, criminals or state actors are well publicised with varying levels of counter-measures being funded to combat attacks. At present it is assessed that there is no direct threat to European or UK security from a state on state conflict but a high risk from terrorism and lower risk of natural disaster. The threat of a maritime ‘trade or energy blockade’ would have very swift impact.

ISSUE : Domestic security suffers from a lack of coordination between agencies. Whilst funding is available and mature professional emergency services (blue light) are in-place, the command and control element is confused and the funding streams reliant upon day to day activity. As a consequence the personnel, resources and funding are not in place to step up to a major emergency unless other agencies – MoD in particular – are called upon. Even then the processes are complex and depend upon ‘cash’ transactions.

In regional terms the threat is existential. That is to say, in a globally connected world, UK security and prosperity are often hostages to another region’s (nation’s) fortunes especially the US and EU. Instability, disaster or conflict at the regional level more often than not requires international (UK) intervention for national as well as altruistic reasons.

Threat Climate/Weather/Health: Climate change and extremes of weather have the potential to affect security, health and commercial well being. Rising sea levels or desertification may force populations to disperse at the same time that basic resources (food and potable water) become scarce. The negative effects upon mortality of flood, drought and population displacement being a direct result of malnutrition, disease and conflicts over resources.

ISSUE : The causes for climate change (is it man made, is it happening at all) are still not universally accepted. Where there is agreement that climate change is occurring there are still opposing views as to how to tackle it; whether it can be redressed in the long or short term; whether the West’s efforts to control carbon dioxide are futile as they are vastly outweighed by emissions in India, China and emerging nations? Does the risk to the UK economy outweigh the nation’s ability to influence or change another, more profligate, nations’ energy policies?

Threat Resource/Economic: The principal threat to the UK is that the nation is not self-sufficient in energy, resources or food. Therefore, the UK economy is highly dependent upon international free markets and the uninterrupted flow of trade – 92% of which transits to and from the UK by sea. In particular the nation’s energy fuel stocks provide less than one month reserves across the mix of product.

ISSUE : How to defend UK’s lines of sea/air communications, domestic sea and air ports and trading partners to ensure an uninterrupted free flow of imports and exports with a 19 destroyer and frigate fleet and zero long range maritime patrol aircraft? Whilst diplomacy is key (soft power influence) what if this fails? What level of flexible and hard power (NATO, Allies, UK armed force) are we prepared to fund out of area – ie Horn of Africa, the Middle East and East China Sea?

Threat Asymmetric/Conventional Military: The UK military is reducing in size and capability to meet the future force 2020 (FF2020) order of battle (ORBAT) in the post Afghanistan era. The national security strategy (NSS) and HMG speak of a UK world wide role whilst at the same time placing more and more emphasis upon stabilisation, conflict prevention and humanitarian aid.

ISSUE : The rhetoric emanating from within Whitehall is portrayed as one of ‘war weariness’, albeit there is little sign that this is proven public opinion, rather an excuse not to address the strategic defence issue. The approaching advent of a post Afghanistan era in particular is focussing attention away from ‘full spectrum capability’ towards stabilisation, conflict prevention and humanitarian activities primarily aimed at counter terrorism and failed state operations. Thus, HM armed forces are in danger of being structured to meet a low intensity threat with little or no ability to regenerate and sustain – or recover from – a peer on peer medium to high intensity war. The actuality of funding for FF2020, rather than HMG rhetoric, only providing the capacity and capability for HM armed forces to field a token expeditionary force. The importance of a wide ranging debate about the SDSR 2015 is vital in this respect to understand the role of Defence in future for the UK

Threat Maritime/Land/Air: Albeit there is no immediately recognisable major threat of invasion of UK homeland it is recognised that allies, lines of communication, ports, air space and commerce are vulnerable. According to HMG, FF2020 is structured and funded to meet these threats albeit not all at the same time.

ISSUE : As currently funded and configured FF2020 will only be capable of providing sufficient naval, air and land forces to either commit one brigade on an enduring low intensity stabilisation/conflict-prevention task OR to regroup by withdrawing from a current task to meet a one off divisional size short duration medium scale war fighting task. This situation calls into question the UK armed forces future ‘readiness’ posture given that reserves, regeneration capability, standby platforms and battle damage repair facilities are limited. Hence the nation’s ability to robustly respond to a ‘counter-surprise’ threat is serious undermined.